In 1985, Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky produced a paper outlining the probabilities of a basketball player making a shot after making several before. The idea being once a player has made consecutive shots then they have the hot hand and will be more likely to make the next shot. While intuitively this seems to make sense, they found that each shot is an independent event.
If a player has a field goal percentage of 55% then every shot they take has a 55% chance of going in. Regardless of the previous misses or makes their shooting percentage will converge to their average. Even though this appears to go against the fabled zone so many great players say they experience, Gilovich et al. produced the data to prove it.
Applied to real sporting events, this data and research has done little to change the perception of athletes. In an intricate motor sequence like shooting a basketball, pitching a baseball, or swinging a golf club the participant does not worry about the probabilities immediately before action. The focus is on their belief of being able to accomplish the task at hand. If a player has data from the immediate past that shows they are capable of producing desired results they will carry that confidence with them. Observers and/or teammates will see their confidence and feed off of it.
One of the greatest shooting performances in recent history was Kobe Bryant’s 81 points against the Toronto Raptors. When the dust settled, Bryant had shot 60% from the field compared to his average of about 45%. It was an incredible game but as the season progressed his numbers converged to his average like Gilovich et al. predicted. However, what their report did not measure was the confidence gained by the team knowing they had a teammate that could completely take over a game. So while the cold hard numbers tell a tidy story it does not address the unquantifiable beliefs the team has of each other.
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